Over-optimism trap

“People are often presumed to be vulnerable to a desirability bias, namely, a tendency to be overoptimistic about a future outcome as a result of their preferences or desires for that outcome. In this article, this form of wishful thinking is distinguished from the more general concepts of motivated reasoning and overoptimism, and the evidence for this bias is reviewed … The potential for desires to depress rather than enhance optimism is discussed …” Krizan, Z. and Windschitl, P. D. The Influence of Outcome Desirability on Optimism, Psychological Bulletin. 2007 Jan Vol 133(1) 95-12.