The formation of probability judgements

“This article introduces 2 new sources of bias in probability judgment, discrimination failure and inhibition failure, which are conceptualized as arising from an interaction between error prone memory processes and a support theory like comparison process. Both sources of bias stem from the influence of irrelevant information on participants' probability judgments, but they postulate different mechanisms for how irrelevant information affects judgment. In Dougherty, M. R. and Sprenger, A. ‘The Influence of Improper Sets of Information on Judgment: How Irrelevant Information Can Bias Judged Probability.’ Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 2007 Feb Vol 92(2) 179-190.