Distance future

“These studies found that in predicting their more distant future performance, participants disregarded the format of the questions (e.g., multiple choice vs. open ended) and relied, instead, on their perceived general knowledge (e.g., history knowledge) … Individuals feel more confident in predicting the distant future than the near future when the predictions concern outcomes that are implied by relatively abstract information.” In Siri et al. ‘Predicting the Near and Distant Future.’ Journal of Experimental Psychology: General. 135(2), May 2006, 152-161.